Progressing harvest pulls wheat futures to four-month lows

Recap for August 24

Wheat futures closed mostly lower Thursday as traders weighed weak demand for US wheat against strong global supplies exemplified by Consultancy Agritel’s Thursday forecast for Russian wheat exports at 49 million tonnes in 2023-24, which would be a record high. With support from strong exports and supply uncertainty amid hot, dry weather, soybean futures firmed for a second straight session. Corn inched down as the market assessed results from the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour, which found Iowa corn yield prospects were near to below average. September corn futures fell 4¢ to settle at $4.72¼ a bu; later months were mixed. Chicago September wheat dropped 8½¢ to close at $6.04 a bu. Kansas City September wheat dipped 2¢ to close at $7.53 a bu; later months were mixed. Minneapolis September wheat shed 9¾¢ to close at $7.74¾ a bu; later months were mixed. September soybean futures were up 6¼¢ to close at $13.65¾ a bu. September soybean meal futures gained $9.70 to close at $422.70 per ton. September soybean oil futures lost 0.61¢ to close at 65.54¢ a lb.

US equity markets declined Thursday on weak manufacturing and jobs data. New orders for durable goods fell 5.2% in July, the Commerce Department said, the steepest slump since April 2020. An S&P Global report a day earlier showed business activity fell to a six-month low in August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 373.56 points, or 1.08%, to close at 34,099.42. The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 59.70 points, or 1.35%, to close at 4,376.31. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 257.06 points, or 1.87%, to close at 13,463.97.

US crude oil prices reversed course and closed higher Thursday. The October West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future added 16¢ to close at $79.05 per barrel.

The US dollar index maintained its up-down pattern for the week to date with an advance Thursday.

As the dollar advanced, US gold futures declined Thursday. The August contract fell 30¢ to close at $1,918.20 an oz.

Recap for August 23

Wheat futures climbed Wednesday as traders monitored news of a Russian drone attack on the port of Izmail along the Danube River in southern Ukraine, which Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said destroyed 13,000 tonnes of grain. Wheat also garnered support from corn futures, which were higher as the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour moved into Indiana and Nebraska. In the latter, estimated corn yields were higher than last year but below the three-year average. Corn and soybean futures firmed on signs hot, dry weather was taking a toll. Nebraska's soybean pod count topped year-ago levels but fell below three-year averages, Pro Farmer scouts indicated. Indiana’s soybean crop production potential was the strongest in five years, scouts said. September corn futures added 9¾¢ to settle at $4.76¼ a bu. Chicago September wheat added 10¾¢ to close at $6.12½ a bu. Kansas City September wheat jumped 15¢ to close at $7.55 a bu. Minneapolis September wheat advanced 11¢ to close at $7.84½ a bu. September soybean futures added 8¢ to close at $13.59½ a bu. September soybean meal futures were up $6.70 to close at $413 per ton. September soybean oil futures gained 0.94¢ to close at 66.15¢ a lb.

US equity markets climbed Wednesday, the S&P 500 to its best close since June, with support from technology and real estate company shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 184.15 points, or 0.54%, to close at 34,472.98. The Standard & Poor’s 500 added 48.46 points, or 1.1%, to close at 4,436.01, with only its energy sector declining along with oil and gas company stocks. The Nasdaq Composite added 215.16 points, or 1.59%, to close at 13,721.03, putting the tech-centric index up 31% so far in 2023.

US crude oil prices declined again Wednesday. The October West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future fell 75¢ to close at $78.89 per barrel.

The US dollar index established an up-down pattern for the week to date, reverting to the down side Wednesday.

As the dollar declined, US gold futures moved higher again Wednesday. The August contract advanced $22.10 to close at $1,918.50 an oz.

Recap for August 22

Corn futures dipped Tuesday as Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour scouts in Ohio estimated yield prospects for the 2023 crop higher than last year’s tour estimate and the recent three-year average, which more than offset a third straight day of US corn export sales to Mexico and a slight decline in the US crop rating released late Monday. Soybean futures were lower as crop tour soybean pod counts in Ohio also came in higher than last year and the 2020-22 average, and as the USDA soybean condition rating came in unchanged after analysts had expected a slight decline. Wheat futures dipped in Kansas City and Minneapolis under continued pressure from inexpensive Russian wheat on the world market that offset a decline in spring wheat condition ratings. Chicago soft winter wheat futures advanced on demand optimism spurred by Egypt buying 60,000 tonnes of Romanian wheat. September corn futures fell 2¾¢ to settle at $4.66½ a bu. Chicago September wheat added 2½¢ to close at $6.01¾ a bu. Kansas City September wheat fell 1¢ to close at $7.40 a bu. Minneapolis September wheat dropped 8¾¢ to close at $7.73½ a bu. September soybean futures dropped 18½¢ to close at $13.51½ a bu. September soybean meal futures dropped $3.50 to close at $406.30 per ton; furthest deferred months were higher. September soybean oil futures shed 2.78¢ to close at 65.21¢ a lb.

US equity markets were mixed Tuesday, the Nasdaq creeping higher as tech giants such as Apple and Microsoft strengthened but the S&P 500 and Dow industrials indices declining on disappointing earnings from such companies as Macy’s and Dick’s Sporting Goods. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 174.86 points, or 0.51%, to close at 34,288.83. The Standard & Poor’s 500 eased 12.22 points, or 0.28%, to close at 4,387.55. The Nasdaq Composite added 8.28 points, or 0.06%, to close at 13,505.87.

US crude oil prices declined Tuesday. The expiring September West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future fell 37¢ to close at $80.35 per barrel. The October future dropped 48¢ to close at $79.64 per barrel.

The US dollar index after two down days bookending the weekend, flipped back to the higher side Tuesday.

US gold futures moved higher again Tuesday. The August contract advanced $3.10 to close at $1,896.40 an oz.

Recap for August 21

In a fourth-straight trading day of upside movement, soybean futures reached a three-week high as hot, dry US weather conditions fueled concerns over crop stress and after the USDA said exporters sold 159,350 tonnes of US soybeans to unknown destinations. Wheat futures declined as Ukraine inked a fresh deal with global exporters to ensure safe grain vessel travel through the Black Sea. Corn futures declined as traders await results from the annual Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour. September corn futures fell 10¼¢ to settle at $4.69¼ a bu. Chicago September wheat declined 14¢ to close at $5.99¼ a bu. Kansas City September wheat was down 12½¢ to close at $7.41 a bu. Minneapolis September wheat shed 20½¢ to close at $7.82¼ a bu. September soybean futures added 7¼¢ to close at $13.70 a bu. September soybean meal futures added $5.90 to close at $409.80 per ton. September soybean oil futures dropped back 0.3¢ to close at 67.99¢ a lb.

US equity markets were mixed Monday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq advancing during a good day for technology stocks even as Treasury yields climbed to fresh 10-year highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 36.97 points, or 0.11%, to close at 34,463.69. The Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 30.06 points, or 0.69%, to close at 4,399.77. The Nasdaq Composite added 206.81 points, or 1.56%, to close at 13,497.59.

US crude oil prices declined Monday. The September West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future shed 53¢ to close at $80.72 per barrel.

The US dollar index extended its losing streak to a second day Monday on the heels of a six-day rally spanning the previous two weeks.
US gold futures moved higher again Monday. The August contract advanced $7.20 to close at $1,893.30 an oz.

Recap for August 18

Wheat futures rebounded Friday after a Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow revved up simmering global concerns about Black Sea grain exports. Soybean futures jumped higher on forecasts for extreme heat with little rain as the US soybean crop enters its final, yield-determining stage before harvest. Corn futures were also higher on concerns the hotter weather may impact the US crop. September corn futures rose 6½¢ to settle at $4.79½ a bu. Chicago September wheat jumped 23¾¢ to close at $6.13¼ a bu. Kansas City September wheat advanced 20½¢ to close at $7.53½ a bu. Minneapolis September wheat gained 15¢ to close at $8.02¾ a bu. September soybean futures jumped 26¢ to close at $13.62¾ a bu. September soybean meal futures added $4.30 to close at $403.90 per ton. September soybean oil futures stepped up 0.53¢ to close at 68.29¢ a lb.

US equity markets were narrowly mixed by Friday’s closing bell, but all three indexes posted losses for the week. Offsetting the decline in stocks was the accelerating rise in treasury yields and government bonds, the latter touching multiyear highs during the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 25.83 points, or 0.07%, to close at 34,500.66. The Standard & Poor’s 500 slipped 0.65 point, or 0.01%, to close at 4,369.71. The Nasdaq Composite lost 26.16 points, or 0.20%, to close at 13,290.78.